Australian consumer inflation expectations fall to their lowest since start of the year

Each week ANZ Roy Morgan conducts their consumer confidence survey. Consumers have been deeply pessimistic for months:

As you can see by the title of the graph, sentiment did rise last week:

• +1.8 points to 79.8 points in the past week, 100 is the point that separates net optimism (>100) from net pessimism (<100

Confidence is well below the long-run average of 111.4 points since 1990.

Of more interest, especially today given the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting, is ANZ’s finding on inflation expectations, which are assessed each week in the survey along with sentiment.

Inflation expectations fell to 5.0%. This is its lowest since the start of the year and will be an input into an RBA decision to hold the cash rate at 3.6%, which is the overwhelming consensus expectation.

Previews:

Preview: RBA monetary policy meeting today. Here’s an outlier call for a 25bp rate hike.

• RBA meet this week – preview – on hold again for the 2nd month in row, AUD vulnerable

• Westpac forecasts no change in RBA cash rate (previously at +25bp rate hike)

• ANZ say any AUD pop on the RBA decision today is likely to be short-lived

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The Reserve Bank of Australia meet on Tuesday, 2 May 2023

• statement due at 2.30pm local time, which is 0430 GMT and 0030 US Eastern time
• Last month the RBA left its cash rate unchanged after 10 consecutive rate hikes.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at http://www.forexlive.com.