- October 7, 2022
- Posted by: AliensFaith
- Category: OBJECTIVE PRESS
Monday – 10 October 2022
- China – Caixin Services PMI (Saturday October 8) a decline to 54.5 from 55.0 is expected.
- IMF Group Meetings kick-off scheduled to run all week
- Sentix Investor Confidence (EUR, GMT 08:30) – The Sentix Investor Confidence number is a leading indicator of the EZ’s economic health. Last month it plunged to lows not seen since May 2020 (-41.8) when it reported a -31.8 fall from -25.2 in August. The October figure could also be very weak.
- FOMC Member Brainard Speaks (USD, GMT 17:00) – Due to speak at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, in Chicago. Audience questions are expected.
Tuesday – 11 October 2022
- Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count & Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The UK Index earnings and Claimant Count are expected to remain unchanged at 5.5% and 6.3k respectively. Unemployment rate could actually fall again to 3.5% from 3.6%.
- Central Bank Speak today includes the Fed’s Mester (GMT 16:00), SNB Chair Jordan (GMT 16:45) and BOE Gov Bailey (GMT 18:35) due to speak at the Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting, in Washington DC.
Wednesday – 12 October 2022
- GDP (m/m) (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The September growth figure missed expectations coming in at 0.2% vs. 0.3%, but significantly ahead of the contraction of -0.6% in August. The October figure is expected to remain flat at 0.2% and below the July high of 0.5%.
- PPI (m/m) (USD, GMT 12:30) – The key PPI headline showed a -0.1% decline last month but was a rebound from the -0.5% decline in August and the spike in July to 1.1%. The price of finished goods and services sold by producers is a key input to rising cost in the US. The key Core PPI figure is expected to come in at 0.4%.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – A detailed record of the FOMC’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. The Historical record of what was discussed and agreed.
Thursday – 13 October 2022
- German Final CPI m/m (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The second and final reading of German CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 1.9% as energy costs plateau, but before the recent OPEC+ oil production cuts.
- Event of the Week – CPI (USD, GMT 12:30) – Headline inflation declined for a 3rd consecutive month last month from July’s record 9.1% high to “only” 8.3%, but remains over 4 times the FEDs 2% target. The Headline is expected to decline again in October, but the more important CORE last month was double expectations at 0.6% from 0.3%, the July peak for the CORE reading was 0.7%. The question persists if the US has seen “peak inflation” or is it to remain stubbornly high.
Friday – 14 October 2022
- Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Headline Retail Sales are expected to expand to 0.4% m/m from 0.3% m/m in September. However the CORE reading, which excludes the volatile Automobile reading (which can account for over 20% of all Retail Sales) is showing further weakness with expectations of a another -0.3% contraction similar to last month.
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:30) – The Preliminary release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment tends to have the most impact; and it is expected to recover to over 60.0 for the first time since April in this October reading, from last months 58.6.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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